https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog Notes on forecasting, probabilities and prediction markets from Sikt Intelligence. en Mon, 28 Sep 2026 21:21:44 +0000 https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/what-is-an-ai-superforecaster https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/what-is-an-ai-superforecaster Mon, 28 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0000 An AI superforecaster researches a question about the future and gives a calibrated probability. How it works, how it's scored, and where it stands in 2026. https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/can-ai-predict-the-future https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/can-ai-predict-the-future Mon, 28 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0000 AI can't see the future, but it now estimates the odds of real events close to the best human forecasters. What the 2026 research shows, and its limits. https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/brier-score-explained https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/brier-score-explained Mon, 28 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0000 The Brier score measures how close a probability was to what happened. Lower is better; always saying 50% scores 0.25. Formula, examples and good scores. https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/forecast-calibration https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/forecast-calibration Mon, 28 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0000 A calibrated forecaster's 70% calls come true about 70% of the time. What calibration means, how to check it, and why people and AI are often overconfident. https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/ai-vs-superforecasters https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/ai-vs-superforecasters Mon, 28 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0000 The best AI is now statistically tied with superforecasters on ForecastBench, while top humans still lead on Metaculus. What each test shows, and what's fair. https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/how-prediction-markets-work https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/how-prediction-markets-work Mon, 28 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0000 A prediction market contract pays $1 if an event happens, so 30¢ means about 30%. How prices form, how Kalshi and Polymarket work, and when odds mislead. https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/favorite-longshot-bias https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/favorite-longshot-bias Mon, 28 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0000 In betting and prediction markets, long shots are overpriced. On Kalshi, buyers of contracts under 10¢ lost over 60%. What the bias is and why it happens. https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/base-rates-forecasting https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/base-rates-forecasting Mon, 28 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0000 A base rate is how often similar things have happened before. Start there, then adjust for the evidence: the surest way to avoid overconfident forecasts.