# When will we know the 2026 midterm results? A state-by-state guide

> When the 2026 midterm results should be known, state by state: poll closing times, which states count fast, and what could push the Senate and House past election night.

Oct 27, 2026 · Forecasting · Sikt Intelligence · https://www.siktintelligence.com/blog/when-will-we-know-midterm-results

**Short answer:** many races will be called on election night, Tuesday, November 3, but control of the Senate or the House may not be. If the key Senate races are close, the answer could take days, and in two cases weeks: Alaska counts its ranked-choice rounds on **November 18**, and a Georgia race without a majority goes to a runoff on **December 1**. The House has taken more than a week in two of the last three midterms, because California and other western states count mail ballots slowly.

> **A live AI forecast, scored in public.** In the Sikt Midterm Bench, Sikt forecasts the 2026 midterms next to Kalshi and Polymarket. Latest round, Oct 27, 2026: **Senate:** Democrats **60%** (markets 64% to 66%), [every round](/midterms/senate-control); **House:** Democrats **90%** (markets 91% to 92%), [every round](/midterms/house-control). Every forecast will be graded after election day, misses included.

## Election night, hour by hour

Polls close at different times, and the first results arrive within minutes. These are the ten Senate races most likely to decide control, in the order their polls close (Eastern Time, November 3). "Sikt's pick" is the latest forecast from the [Sikt Midterm Bench](/midterms), our public test of an AI forecaster on the 2026 midterms.

| Race | Polls close | Count | Sikt's pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Georgia](/odds/georgia-senate-race-odds) | 7 pm | Fast; runoff if under 50% | Ossoff (D) 93% |
| [New Hampshire](/odds/new-hampshire-senate-race-odds) | 7–8 pm | Fast | Pappas (D) 89% |
| [North Carolina](/odds/north-carolina-senate-race-odds) | 7:30 pm | Fast | Cooper (D) 95% |
| [Ohio](/odds/ohio-senate-race-odds) | 7:30 pm | Fast | Brown (D) 65% |
| [Maine](/odds/maine-senate-race-odds) | 8 pm | Fast; extra round if under 50% | Jackson (D) 54% |
| [Michigan](/odds/michigan-senate-race-odds) | 8–9 pm | Cities into the night | El-Sayed (D) 76% |
| [Texas](/odds/texas-senate-race-odds) | 8–9 pm | Fast unless very close | Talarico (D) 60% |
| [Iowa](/odds/iowa-senate-race-odds) | 9 pm | Fast | Hinson (R) 51% |
| [Nebraska](/odds/nebraska-senate-race-odds) | 9–10 pm | Fast | Ricketts (R) 56% |
| [Alaska](/odds/alaska-senate-race-odds) | 12–1 am | Slow; ranked-choice Nov 18 | Peltola (D) 53% |

Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Michigan count only mail ballots that arrive by the time polls close, so most of their votes are in on election night. Michigan's big cities can still report into the early morning, and Texas accepts mail ballots until the day after. Alaska and Maine are the slow ones, for reasons explained below.

Click a state for Sikt's reasoning, every forecast round and the live market odds. Poll times are Eastern and for most of each state: several states span two time zones, and the last polls close an hour later.

## When will we know who won the Senate?

It depends on how many races are close. In Sikt's latest forecast (round 9, from Oct 27, 2026), several of the ten key races are near 50-50, so a clean answer on election night is far from certain. Sikt's latest Midterm Bench forecast, from Oct 27, 2026, gives Democrats a **60%** chance of controlling the Senate, against 64% to 66% on the markets. See every round on [Sikt's Senate forecast page](/midterms/senate-control). Sikt also forecasts each race's margin: the closest are Maine (Jackson +0.7), Alaska (Peltola +1.0) and Iowa (Hinson +1.1) (see [2026 Senate race margins](/blog/2026-senate-race-margins)).

Three things could stretch it out:

- **A close race in a slow state.** If control comes down to Alaska, the final answer may wait for the state's ranked-choice count on November 18. The Division of Elections aims to certify on November 25.
- **A Maine ranked-choice round.** Maine uses ranked-choice voting in federal general elections. Only Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are on the ballot, but six declared write-in candidates mean voters get a ranked ballot. If neither leading candidate tops 50%, ballots go to Augusta for a central count. In 2018 that took nine days for a House seat.
- **A Georgia runoff.** If no Senate candidate in Georgia wins a majority, the top two meet again on December 1. It has happened before: in 2020, Senate control was not settled until the Georgia runoffs on January 5, 2021.

**How long it took before.** In 2024 the Senate was called on election night. In 2022 it took four days: Democrats held the Senate when Nevada was called on Saturday, November 12.

## When will we know who won the House?

Probably not on election night, unless one party wins clearly. In 2018 the House was called on election night. In 2022 and 2024 it took more than a week: the Associated Press called the House for Republicans on November 16, 2022 and on November 13, 2024, both times after a close seat in the West was decided.

The reason is the West. **California** counts mail ballots that are postmarked by election day and arrive up to seven days later, through November 10, and its counties have until December 3 to certify. A House majority that hangs on a handful of California, Arizona or Nevada seats will take time. New district maps in Texas, California and other states add uncertainty about which seats are close in the first place.

Sikt's latest Midterm Bench forecast, from Oct 27, 2026, gives Democrats a **90%** chance of controlling the House, against 91% to 92% on the markets. See every round on [Sikt's House forecast page](/midterms/house-control). A majority takes **218** of 435 seats. More in [who will win the House in 2026?](/blog/who-will-win-the-house-2026)

## What slows the count

- **Mail ballots that can arrive late.** In June 2026 the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in *Watson v. Republican National Committee* that states may count mail ballots postmarked by election day that arrive afterwards. About 14 states and Washington, D.C. allow it, from one day in Texas to a week or more elsewhere. Ohio dropped its grace period before the ruling, so Ohio ballots must arrive by the time polls close.
- **Processing rules.** Some states let officials open and check mail ballots weeks ahead; others cannot start until election day. Michigan now lets larger towns process ballots eight days early, which is why its count is faster than in 2020.
- **Close margins.** News organizations call a race only when the trailing candidate has no realistic path. A race within a point can stay uncalled while late ballots and provisional ballots are checked, and some states hold automatic recounts when the margin is very small.
- **The order of the count.** In-person votes and mail votes lean differently, so an early lead can shrink or flip as the rest comes in. A lead at 10 pm is not a result.

> A call is a projection by news organizations. The official result comes later, when each state certifies, usually two to four weeks after election day.

## How to follow election night without the noise

Partial results are hard to read. A candidate up five points with 40% counted could be safe or in trouble, depending on which votes are still out. That is where a forecast made **before** the counting started helps: it tells you which races were expected to be close, so a slow count in one of them is no surprise, and an early landslide in another is a real signal.

That is what Sikt Intelligence builds. Our AI forecaster researches each question the way an analyst would, reading the polls, the news and the history of similar races, and puts a probability on the outcome:

- **Every forecast is dated and public.** The Midterm Bench has published a new round every few days since September 30, and every round stays on the record.
- **It explains its reasoning in plain words.** Every race page shows why Sikt leans the way it does, not just a number.
- **It sits next to the markets.** Each forecast is shown beside the live prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, so you can see where an AI and thousands of traders read the same race differently.
- **It is graded in public.** After the results are in, every round will be scored with the [Brier score](/blog/brier-score-explained), misses included.
- **It is not only elections.** The same forecaster takes on [Fed decisions](/blog/fed-rate-odds-october-2026), [inflation reports](/blog/can-ai-predict-cpi) and other questions with a date and an answer.

Follow the forecast on our [2026 midterms page](/midterms), see every race in [2026 midterm predictions](/blog/2026-midterm-predictions), or [join the waitlist](/#access) for early access.

## Key takeaways

- Polls close between 7 pm and 1 am Eastern on November 3; most races are called that night.
- Senate control could wait for close races in Alaska (ranked-choice count on November 18), Maine (a ranked-choice round) or Georgia (a runoff on December 1).
- The House took more than a week in 2022 and 2024, because western states count mail ballots slowly.
- Sikt's AI forecaster favors **Democrats** to win both the House (90%) and the Senate (60%), as of round 9, from Oct 27, 2026.

## FAQ

### When will the 2026 midterm results be known?

Most races will be called on election night, November 3, 2026. Control of the Senate or the House could take days if the key races are close, and longer if Alaska's ranked-choice count (November 18) or a Georgia runoff (December 1) decides it.

### What time do polls close on election night 2026?

The first polls close at 6 pm Eastern in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Georgia closes at 7 pm, North Carolina and Ohio at 7:30 pm, most of Michigan, Texas, Maine and New Hampshire at 8 pm, Iowa and Nebraska at 9 pm, California at 11 pm and most of Alaska at midnight.

### How long did it take to know the 2022 midterm results?

Senate control was settled on November 12, 2022, four days after the election, when Nevada was called. House control was called on November 16, eight days after the election.

### Why does Alaska take so long to count?

Alaska accepts mail ballots postmarked by election day that arrive later, and races where no candidate wins a majority of first choices go to a ranked-choice count. In 2026 that count is scheduled for November 18.

### Will there be a Georgia runoff in 2026?

Only if no candidate wins a majority. Georgia requires 50% plus one vote to win outright; otherwise the top two candidates meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026.

### What does Sikt predict for the midterms?

Sikt's AI forecaster favors **Democrats** to win both the House (90%) and the Senate (60%), in its latest forecast (round 9, from Oct 27, 2026). The full race-by-race forecast is in [2026 midterm predictions](/blog/2026-midterm-predictions).