US–Iran nuclear deal odds
These are the prediction market odds of a nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran, from Kalshi and Polymarket. The two markets use different deadlines and definitions, so compare their rules.
US–Iran nuclear deal before 2027
The two markets define a deal differently.
The markets
US–Iran nuclear deal?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 38% | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 30% | |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 24% | |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 18% | |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 14% | |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 10% | |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 5.5% | |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% |
US–Iran final nuclear deal by…?
| Outcome | Polymarket | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| September 30 | <1% | |
| December 31 | 14% | |
| November 30 | 8.5% | |
| October 31 | 3.6% |
What to know
- Definitions matter: a framework, an interim arrangement and a final deal can resolve markets differently. Check each market's rules before comparing numbers.
- What moves these odds: announced talks, statements from both governments, military incidents and sanctions decisions.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “US-Iran nuclear deal?”: If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?”: On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
What are the odds of a US–Iran nuclear deal?
As of Sep 29, 2026, Kalshi prices it at 14% and Polymarket prices it at 14%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.