Putin out odds: will Putin leave power?
These are Polymarket's odds that Vladimir Putin stops being President of Russia by each deadline, one of the most-traded leadership markets.
Putin out by the end of 2026
Polymarket
2.9%
7 days −1 pts
The markets
Putin out as President of Russia by…?
| Outcome | Polymarket | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 2.9% | |
| September 30, 2026 | <1% | |
| June 30, 2027 | 12% |
What to know
- Tenure: Putin has led Russia as president or prime minister since 1999. The next scheduled presidential election is in 2030.
- Base rate: long-serving leaders rarely leave office in any given year, so near-term deadlines start from a low base rate.
How these markets resolve
- Polymarket, “Putin out as President of Russia by...?”: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
What are the odds Putin leaves power?
As of Sep 29, 2026, Polymarket prices it at 2.9%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.