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How honest probabilities are made, checked and scored, and what they say about the world’s biggest events.
The full record of Sikt's first election benchmark. 13 timestamped rounds on the House, the Senate, ten key Senate races and their margins, next to the markets, from September 30 to election morning.
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Sikt Bench tests how well AI models forecast real events, using only what was knowable at the time. The first preview ranks six models on 232 events.
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Sikt's AI gave Eli Lilly a 33% chance of beating $7.49 EPS; the market said 44%. Lilly reported $7.48, and the stock still rose 7%. Here is why.
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How much each key 2026 Senate race will be won by, according to Sikt's AI forecast, with an 80% range for every race and the market's margin next to it.
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How many House and Senate seats Democrats are expected to win in the 2026 midterms, from Sikt's AI forecast, with an 80% range and the seat markets next to it.
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When the 2026 midterm results should be known, state by state: poll closing times, which states count fast, and what could push the Senate and House past election night.
Read the articleSikt's AI forecast for the 2026 midterms: the chance each party wins the Senate and the House, a pick in ten key Senate races, and where it differs from the markets.
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We sent Sikt back to October 5, four days before the Trump–Putin diesel deal. It mapped the exact path, then gave it 2%. Here is what it saw and missed.
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Can AI predict CPI? We replayed the night before the September 2026 report: Sikt hit headline inflation at 3.7% but missed core at 2.6%. Here is why.
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From time-series models like TimesFM to event forecasters, bot tournaments and prediction markets: the main AI forecasting tools in 2026, and how to choose one.
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AI forecasting beats traditional methods in weather and large retail data, but not everywhere. What the M4 and M5 competitions show, and when to use which.
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We sent Sikt's AI back to one week in October and bet $1,000 each time it disagreed with the market. 7 of 10 bets lost, and it still came out ahead.
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Google DeepMind's WeatherNext 3 forecasts the planet every hour at up to 5 km, with up to 50% more accurate rain forecasts. How AI weather forecasting works.
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The Fed held rates at 3.75–4% on October 28, 2026, with two votes for a hike. How Sikt's AI forecast and the markets scored, and the odds of a hike in December.
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Live Kalshi and Polymarket odds of a US recession in 2026 and 2027, what the latest GDP and jobs data show, and how these markets define a recession.
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Where to get prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket, free APIs and paid feeds, how to read prices as probabilities, and pitfalls to avoid.
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How to tell if a prediction market trade is worth it after fees, and how much to stake with the Kelly criterion. Simple formulas and worked examples.
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How businesses and investors hedge event risk with prediction markets, from Fed decisions to elections: worked examples, costs and the risks.
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What AI forecasting is, how it works for sales, weather and real-world events, how accurate it is in 2026, the main tools, and where it still fails.
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Live Kalshi and Polymarket odds on who will win the House in 2026, Sikt's AI forecast next to them, and what history and new maps mean for control.
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Superforecasters are the top forecasters from a US intelligence tournament. Who they are, what makes them accurate, and how to become one.
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Which AI forecasts best? How ForecastBench, Prophet Arena and Metaculus FutureEval test AI on real future events, and what their 2026 results show.
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Live Kalshi and Polymarket odds on who will win the Senate in 2026, the seat math, and the ten races that decide control. Updated every few hours.
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69% of retail Polymarket accounts lose money, and 0.1% of accounts take 67% of the profits. Why most traders lose, and five habits of the ones who don't.
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A six-step research routine for Polymarket and Kalshi, from reading the rules to finding the real gap with the market, done by hand in 15 minutes.
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One AI model called 2024 a week early, but AI "synthetic polls" miss real ones by 12 points. What works, what fails, and AI forecasts for the 2026 midterms.
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Quant firms make markets on Kalshi, Wall Street buys Polymarket data as signals, and funds start hedging with event contracts. What institutions do in 2026.
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How accurate is AI stock prediction? AI can read news and predict short-term moves, but the edge is small, shrinking and easy to fake in a backtest.
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A prediction market is an exchange where people trade on future events, and the price works as a probability. How it works, who runs them, why they matter.
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Prediction markets are often accurate on big, liquid questions and beat polls most of the time, but miss on long shots and thin markets. What research shows.
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Polls measure what voters think today; prediction markets price what will happen. Which forecasts elections better, what Brexit and 2024 taught us.
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A 30¢ prediction market price means about a 30% chance. How to read prices, bid and ask, fees, and convert American, decimal and fractional odds.
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An event contract pays out if a specific event happens, like a rate cut or an election. How they work, how they differ from sports bets, who regulates them.
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An AI superforecaster researches a question about the future and gives a calibrated probability. How it works, how it's scored, and where it stands in 2026.
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AI can't see the future, but it now estimates the odds of real events close to the best human forecasters. What the 2026 research shows, and its limits.
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What the Brier score and Brier skill score mean: the formula, worked examples, what counts as a good score, and a free calculator for your own forecasts.
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A calibrated forecaster's 70% calls come true about 70% of the time. What calibration means, how to check it, and why people and AI are often overconfident.
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Is AI as good as superforecasters yet? On ForecastBench the best AI is tied with them; on Metaculus top humans still lead. What each test shows.
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A prediction market contract pays $1 if an event happens, so 30¢ means about 30%. How prices form, how Kalshi and Polymarket work, and when odds mislead.
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In betting and prediction markets, long shots are overpriced. On Kalshi, buyers of contracts under 10¢ lost over 60%. What the bias is and why it happens.
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A base rate is how often similar things happened before. How to find one, adjust it for the evidence, and avoid overconfident forecasts, with examples.
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