China–Taiwan invasion odds
These are Polymarket's odds for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a military clash and a blockade. They are among the most-watched geopolitical markets.
China invades Taiwan by the end of 2026
Polymarket
3.5%
7 days −0.5 pts
The markets
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2026?
| Outcome | Polymarket | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.5% |
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
| Outcome | Polymarket | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7.5% |
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
| Outcome | Polymarket | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.8% |
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
| Outcome | Polymarket | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.2% |
What to know
- Base rate: there has been no attempt to take Taiwan itself by force since 1949. Low-probability, high-impact markets like this are where prices tend to run high (the favorite-longshot bias).
- Different thresholds: an invasion, a blockade and a military clash are very different events, so their odds should not be read as one number.
- What moves these odds: large military exercises, political transitions, and statements from Beijing, Taipei and Washington.
How these markets resolve
- Polymarket, “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?”: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Full rules
- Polymarket, “Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?”: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Full rules
- Polymarket, “China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?”: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Full rules
- Polymarket, “Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?”: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
What are the odds China invades Taiwan?
As of Sep 29, 2026, Polymarket prices it at 3.5%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.