Trump and Greenland: will the US acquire Greenland?
Greenland is a self-governing territory within the Kingdom of Denmark. These are the prediction market odds that the US buys or takes control of all or part of it, on Kalshi and Polymarket.
US acquires Greenland before 2027
Kalshi counts buying part of Greenland; Polymarket asks about acquiring Greenland.
The markets
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Before January 20, 2029 | 15% | |
| Before 2027 | 4% |
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Before January 21, 2029 | 22% | |
| Before 2027 | 4% |
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
| Outcome | Polymarket | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.7% |
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
| Outcome | Polymarket | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.9% |
What to know
- Status: Greenland is a self-governing part of the Kingdom of Denmark. The governments of Denmark and Greenland have repeatedly said it is not for sale.
- Different deadlines: the Kalshi markets run to early 2029, while the Polymarket markets end in 2026, so their odds are not directly comparable.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?”: If the United States purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Kalshi, “Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?”: If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?”: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Full rules
- Polymarket, “Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?”: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
What are the odds the US acquires Greenland?
As of Sep 29, 2026, Kalshi prices it at 4% and Polymarket prices it at 2.7%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.