2028 Democratic nominee odds
The Democratic presidential primary for 2028 is the most-traded political market on Polymarket. These are the leading contenders' odds of winning the nomination, on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the nomination
The markets
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee?
Kalshi · 228.4M contracts traded · Polymarket · $1.29B traded
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 14% | 19% | |
| Jon Ossoff | 16% | 15% | |
| Gavin Newsom | 14% | 17% | |
| Kamala Harris | 7% | 6.3% | |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.7% | 6.2% | |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.2% | 5.1% | |
| Andy Beshear | 6.6% | 2.7% | |
| Mark Kelly | 4.2% | 2.5% | |
| James Talarico | 3.2% | 2.1% | |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.9% | 2.1% |
What to know
- Timeline: primaries and caucuses run in the first half of 2028, and the nominee is confirmed at the Democratic National Convention that summer.
- Base rate: in open primaries, the candidate leading two years out often does not win. Name recognition drives early odds more than it drives votes.
- Long shots: most contenders trade in single digits, where prediction markets tend to overprice outcomes (the favorite-longshot bias).
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “2028 Democratic presidential nominee”: If Hunter Biden wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028”: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
Who is the favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination?
As of Sep 29, 2026, Kalshi prices it at 14% and Polymarket prices it at 19%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.