Fed rate odds: cut, hold or hike?

The markets

Fed decision at the December 8–9 meeting

Kalshi · 2.7M contracts traded · Polymarket · $12.0M traded

Kalshi: “Fed decision in Dec 2026?”

Outcome	Kalshi	Probability
Hike 25bps	76%
Fed maintains rate	24%
Hike >25bps	1.5%
Cut >25bps	1%
Cut 25bps	1%

Polymarket: “Fed Decision in December?”

Outcome	Polymarket	Probability
25 bps increase	76%
No change	24%
50+ bps increase	1.5%
25 bps decrease	<1%
50+ bps decrease	<1%

Fed rate cut before 2027?

Kalshi · 1.7M contracts traded

Outcome	Kalshi	Probability
Yes	2.8%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Polymarket · $55.4M traded

Outcome	Polymarket	Probability
0 (0 bps)	97%
1 (25 bps)	<1%
2 (50 bps)	<1%
3 (75 bps)	<1%
4 (100 bps)	<1%
5 (125 bps)	<1%
6 (150 bps)	<1%
7 (175 bps)	<1%

A cut larger than 25 basis points this year?

Kalshi · 691K contracts traded

Outcome	Kalshi	Probability
Yes	2.2%

What to know

• Last 2026 meeting: December 8–9 (Federal Reserve calendar). On October 28 the Fed held at 3.75–4% in a 10–2 vote; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanted a quarter-point hike.
• Typical move: the Fed usually changes rates in steps of 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points).
• What moves these odds: inflation (CPI and PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, and the statement and projections from each meeting.

How these markets resolve

• Kalshi, “Fed decision in Dec 2026?”: If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
• Polymarket, “Fed Decision in December?”: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Full rules
• Kalshi, “Fed rate cut before 2027?”: If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
• Polymarket, “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?”: This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. Full rules
• Kalshi, “Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?”: If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules

How to read these odds

A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.

FAQ

What do markets expect at the December Fed meeting?

As of Nov 4, 2026, Polymarket prices it at 76%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.

Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?

They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.

How often are these odds updated?

Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).