2028 presidential election odds: who will win?
The 2028 US presidential election is on November 7, 2028. These are the leading candidates' odds of winning it, on Kalshi and Polymarket, updated several times a day.
JD Vance wins in 2028
The markets
Who will win the 2028 presidential election?
Kalshi · 70.1M contracts traded · Polymarket · $709.9M traded
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 20% | 21% | |
| Jon Ossoff | 12% | 12% | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 9.2% | 13% | |
| Marco Rubio | 9.7% | 8.8% | |
| Gavin Newsom | 8.3% | 7.6% | |
| Kamala Harris | 3.6% | 4% | |
| Josh Shapiro | 2.8% | 2.9% | |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.9% | 2.8% | |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.9% | 1.9% | |
| Donald J. Trump | 2.4% | – |
What to know
- Election day is November 7, 2028. Nominees are chosen through primaries and caucuses in the first half of 2028 and confirmed at the party conventions that summer.
- Base rate: two years out, the early favourite for a nomination often does not become the nominee. Long-dated odds on individual candidates tend to shift a great deal.
- Read the small numbers carefully: most candidates trade at low prices, where the favorite-longshot bias means markets tend to overstate their chances.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?”: If Gavin Newsom is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “Presidential Election Winner 2028”: The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the 2028 presidential election?
As of Sep 29, 2026, Kalshi prices it at 20% and Polymarket prices it at 21%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.