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Short

Sikt Intelligence is an AI forecasting startup in Oslo, Norway. Its AI superforecaster reads the evidence, weighs it and puts an honest probability on real-world events, next to the prediction-market price. Every forecast is scored when the answer arrives, misses included.

Longer

Sikt Intelligence is an AI forecasting startup in Oslo, Norway. Its AI superforecaster reads the evidence, weighs it and puts an honest probability on real-world events, next to the prediction-market price. Every forecast is scored when the answer arrives, misses included. For the 2026 US midterms, Sikt runs the Sikt Midterm Bench: since September 30, it has published a timestamped forecast for control of the House and Senate and ten key Senate races every few days, next to Kalshi and Polymarket. Every round stays online, and all of it will be graded against the results after election day. Sikt Intelligence was founded by Kristian Fagerlie, its CEO.

How the Midterm Bench works

Each round, Sikt reads the news and data that exist at that moment and checks its sources, and independent AI forecasters agree on one probability for each race. The forecast is published with a timestamp next to the Kalshi and Polymarket prices and never edited afterwards. After election day, every round is scored with the Brier score, Sikt and the market alike.