US recession odds for 2026 and 2027
These are the prediction market odds of a US recession, from Kalshi and Polymarket. Read each market's rules carefully: some follow the official NBER declaration, others use GDP.
US recession in 2026
The markets
Recession in 2026?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.5% |
Recession in 2027?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 22% |
US recession by end of 2026?
| Outcome | Polymarket | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8.5% |
What to know
- Who decides: in the US, recessions are dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), often many months after they begin. Markets that resolve on an NBER announcement can take a long time to settle.
- Base rate: since World War II, the US has been in recession in a small minority of years, so any single year starts with a low base rate.
- What moves these odds: GDP releases, unemployment and jobless claims, the yield curve and financial stress.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “Recession this year?”: If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Kalshi, “Recession in 2027?”: If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “US recession by end of 2026?”: This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, Kalshi prices it at 5.5% and Polymarket prices it at 8.5%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.