Bitcoin price odds for the end of 2026
These prediction markets price where Bitcoin ends 2026, and which price levels it touches before then. Crypto prices are volatile, and these odds describe what traders are betting, not advice.
Most likely year-end range: 80,000 to 84,999.99
Kalshi
14%
7 days +1.2 pts
The markets
Bitcoin price range at the end of 2026
| Outcome | Kalshi | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 19,999.99 or below | <1% | |
| 20,000 to 24,999.99 | <1% | |
| 25,000 to 29,999.99 | <1% | |
| 30,000 to 34,999.99 | <1% | |
| 35,000 to 39,999.99 | <1% | |
| 40,000 to 44,999.99 | <1% | |
| 45,000 to 49,999.99 | <1% | |
| 50,000 to 54,999.99 | 1.8% | |
| 55,000 to 59,999.99 | 2.2% | |
| 60,000 to 64,999.99 | 3.9% | |
| 65,000 to 69,999.99 | 5.9% | |
| 70,000 to 74,999.99 | 9.6% |
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
| Outcome | Polymarket | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| ↑ 95,000 | 48% | |
| ↓ 60,000 | 14% | |
| ↓ 70,000 | 32% | |
| ↓ 65,000 | 20% | |
| ↑ 200,000 | 1.3% | |
| ↑ 190,000 | 1.2% | |
| ↑ 180,000 | <1% | |
| ↑ 170,000 | 2.1% | |
| ↑ 160,000 | 3.8% | |
| ↑ 150,000 | 3.5% | |
| ↑ 140,000 | 4.5% | |
| ↑ 130,000 | 5.9% | |
| ↑ 120,000 | 10% | |
| ↑ 110,000 | 16% |
What to know
- Two different questions: Kalshi's market is about the price at the end of the year; Polymarket's is about whether a price level is touched at any time before then.
- Volatility: Bitcoin can move tens of percent in weeks, so ranges far from today's price can still carry real probability.
- Not advice: these are market prices, shown for information only.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “Bitcoin price at the end of 2026”: If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12 AM EST is below 20000.00 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?”: What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027? Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
What is the most likely Bitcoin price at the end of 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, Kalshi prices it at 14%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.