How much each key 2026 Senate race will be won by, according to Sikt's AI forecast, with an 80% range for every race and the market's margin next to it.
By Kristian FagerlieFounder & CEO, Sikt Intelligence
Short answer: most of the key 2026 Senate races are expected to be decided by a few points, and several are close enough to go either way. In its latest forecast (round 9, from Oct 27, 2026), Sikt Intelligence's AI forecaster puts a number on how much each race will be won by, not just who wins, and gives an 80% range around it. The table below has every race, closest first, next to the margin that the market expects.
| Race | Sikt | Market |
|---|---|---|
| Maine | Jackson +0.7 | Jackson +0.9 |
| Alaska | Peltola +1.0 | Peltola +2.7 |
| Iowa | Hinson +1.1 | Hinson +0.7 |
| Texas | Talarico +1.4 | Talarico +1.4 |
| Nebraska | Ricketts +2.0 | Ricketts +3.4 |
| Ohio | Brown +2.2 | Brown +2.2 |
| Michigan | El-Sayed +4.0 | El-Sayed +1.9 |
| New Hampshire | Pappas +7.6 | – |
| North Carolina | Cooper +10.4 | Cooper +13.2 |
"Sikt" is the AI's middle estimate of the winner's lead in vote share, in percentage points. "Market" is the middle of Kalshi's margin-of-victory markets for the same race, at the start of the same round. Click a state for the chart, Sikt's reasoning and the live odds.
A win chance and a margin describe the same race in two ways. "Smith has a 60% chance" says who is favored. "Smith by about 1.5 points, somewhere between losing by 4 and winning by 7" says how close the race is likely to be, and how unsure the forecaster is.
Margins are also much easier to check. After November 3, anyone can compare each forecast with the certified result: did the race land near the middle estimate, and inside the range? A forecaster who only names winners can be lucky. One that commits to margins in public, with ranges, cannot hide.
Each forecast is a middle estimate and an 80% range. The range is set so that the result should land inside it 8 times in 10. That means about 2 races in 10 should land outside it, so one or two misses on election night are expected, not a failure. A forecaster whose ranges almost never miss is drawing them too wide; one whose ranges miss half the time is overconfident. This idea is called calibration.
The ranges are wide because elections are uncertain. In recent elections, final Senate polls have often missed the margin by several points, and most of the races here are within that distance.
Sikt's middle estimate is Jackson by 0.7 points, with an 80% range from Collins by 6.1 to Jackson by 6.8. Kalshi's margin markets say Jackson by 0.9, so Sikt is the same as the market. Maine uses ranked-choice voting, so a narrow result can go to an extra round. Maine Senate forecast and odds.
Sikt's middle estimate is Peltola by 1.0 points, with an 80% range from Sullivan by 5.2 to Peltola by 7.0. Kalshi's margin markets say Peltola by 2.7, so Sikt is 1.7 points more toward Sullivan than the market. Alaska counts its ranked-choice rounds on November 18, so a close race here can take weeks. Alaska Senate forecast and odds.
Sikt's middle estimate is Hinson by 1.1 points, with an 80% range from Hinson by 6.9 to Turek by 4.8. Kalshi's margin markets say Hinson by 0.7, so Sikt is 0.4 points more toward Hinson than the market. Iowa Senate forecast and odds.
Sikt's middle estimate is Talarico by 1.4 points, with an 80% range from Paxton by 4.2 to Talarico by 6.9. Kalshi's margin markets say Talarico by 1.4, so Sikt is the same as the market. Texas Senate forecast and odds.
Sikt's middle estimate is Ricketts by 2.0 points, with an 80% range from Ricketts by 8.5 to Osborn by 4.4. Kalshi's margin markets say Ricketts by 3.4, so Sikt is 1.4 points more toward Osborn than the market. Osborn is an independent, and no Democrat is on the ballot, so this race is Ricketts against Osborn. Nebraska Senate forecast and odds.
Sikt's middle estimate is Brown by 2.2 points, with an 80% range from Husted by 3.6 to Brown by 8.0. Kalshi's margin markets say Brown by 2.2, so Sikt is the same as the market. Ohio Senate forecast and odds.
Sikt's middle estimate is El-Sayed by 4.0 points, with an 80% range from Rogers by 1.5 to El-Sayed by 9.6. Kalshi's margin markets say El-Sayed by 1.9, so Sikt is 2.1 points more toward El-Sayed than the market. Michigan Senate forecast and odds.
Sikt's middle estimate is Pappas by 7.6 points, with an 80% range from Pappas by 1.5 to Pappas by 13.8. Kalshi has no margin market for this race. New Hampshire Senate forecast and odds.
Sikt's middle estimate is Cooper by 10.4 points, with an 80% range from Cooper by 4.5 to Cooper by 16.2. Kalshi's margin markets say Cooper by 13.2, so Sikt is 2.8 points more toward Whatley than the market. North Carolina Senate forecast and odds.
Georgia is not in the margin forecast this round. Its win forecast is on the Georgia Senate page.
Sikt's margins differ most from the market's in North Carolina (Sikt Cooper +10.4, market Cooper +13.2) and Michigan (Sikt El-Sayed +4.0, market El-Sayed +1.9). In the other 6 races with a margin market, the two are within 1.7 points.
Small gaps are normal: both read the same polls. The interesting cases are where the AI weighs something differently, such as a state's history of polls overstating one party, which pulls its middle estimate toward the other side.
Close races decide the Senate. Democrats hold 47 seats, counting the two independents who caucus with them, and need 51 for control. Sikt's middle estimate is 51 Democratic Senate seats, with an 80% range of 48 to 54; 51 is a majority. Kalshi's seat markets put the middle at 52 (47 to 53+), so Sikt expects 1 fewer than the market. See the chart.
Margins also decide how fast we know. A race that ends inside a point or two can take days to call, and in Maine, Alaska and Georgia a narrow result can trigger a ranked-choice count or a runoff. More in when will we know the 2026 midterm results?
After the states certify their results, every margin forecast will be compared with the actual margin: how far the middle estimate was from the result, and whether the result landed inside the 80% range. Across all the races, about 8 in 10 should be inside. We will publish the score, misses included, next to the market's, on our 2026 midterms page.
That is what Sikt Intelligence builds: an AI forecaster that researches each question like an analyst, puts a number on it, shows its reasoning and is graded in public. The same forecaster also covers Fed decisions and inflation reports. Join the waitlist for early access.
Several are close enough to go either way. In Sikt's latest forecast (round 9, from Oct 27, 2026), the closest are Maine (Jackson +0.7), Alaska (Peltola +1.0) and Iowa (Hinson +1.1). The full list is in the table at the top of this article, and it updates with every round.
The winner's lead over the runner-up in share of the vote, in percentage points. A candidate who wins 51% to 48% wins by 3 points.
It is the range the result should land inside 8 times in 10. About 2 in 10 races should land outside their range, so a few misses are expected.
Kalshi lists margin-of-victory markets for many Senate races. Sikt shows their middle estimate next to its own on each race page. Market prices are shown for information only and are not advice.
Sikt's middle estimate is 51 Democratic Senate seats, with an 80% range of 48 to 54; 51 is a majority. Kalshi's seat markets put the middle at 52 (47 to 53+), so Sikt expects 1 fewer than the market. See the chart. More in how many seats will Democrats win in 2026?
How many House and Senate seats Democrats are expected to win in the 2026 midterms, from Sikt's AI forecast, with an 80% range and the seat markets next to it.
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When the 2026 midterm results should be known, state by state: poll closing times, which states count fast, and what could push the Senate and House past election night.
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