Alaska Senate race odds 2026: Sullivan vs. Peltola
Republican Dan Sullivan, in the Senate since 2015, faces Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman.
Mary Peltola (D) wins
Kalshi
69%
At Sikt’s forecast, Nov 3 · now 97%
Polymarket
72%
At Sikt’s forecast, Nov 3 · now 98%
Sikt’s forecast
Sikt gives Mary Peltola a 53% chance, against 71% on the markets at the time. Latest Sikt Midterm Bench round: Nov 3, 2026.
Sikt’s read
- History favors Sullivan. Alaska has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008, and Trump won the state by about 13 points in 2024.
- The polls lean Peltola. All five polling averages put her 1.0 to 3.5 points ahead, the final NYT/Siena poll has her up 48–46, and the final ranked-choice rounds in recent polls run about 51–49.
- The year helps her. The national environment is about D+9, she ran about 10 points ahead of her party's presidential ticket in 2024, and she has a large money edge.
- What holds Sikt back: Alaska polls have understated Republicans before (in 2020 Sullivan led the polls by about 5 and won by nearly 13), late deciders leaned Republican, and most polling was done before the October 28 New York Times report on candidate recruitment in the race.
- The fine print: the market pays on who is sworn in by January 4. Threats to hold up certification, talk of refusing to seat her and a Justice Department appeal add a real risk even if Peltola wins the count, though the market can settle early on a media call.
- Bottom line: close to a coin flip with a slight Peltola lean, unchanged from last round. Sikt is far less sure of her than the market is: still its biggest disagreement. (Sikt forecasts the Democratic Party's chance; Peltola is the Democratic nominee.)
How much will they win by?
Sikt’s middle estimate: Peltola by 1.0 points. Its 80% range runs from Sullivan by 5.4 to Peltola by 7.0, so the result should land inside it 8 times in 10. Kalshi's margin markets, at the start of the round: Peltola by 2.6 (Sullivan by 4.8 to Peltola by 9.5).
Margin is the winner’s lead in share of the vote, in percentage points. Round 13, Nov 3, 2026. Scored against the certified result. Every race: 2026 Senate race margins.
Every round
Chance Mary Peltola wins. Market prices are from the same day; the gap is Sikt minus the average of the two markets, in points. Version is the release of Sikt that made the forecast.
| Round | Date | Sikt | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R13 | Nov 3 | 53% | 69% | 72% | -18 | 1.12 |
| R12 | Nov 2 | 53% | 72% | 74% | -20 | 1.12 |
| R11 | Oct 31 | 51% | 68% | 70% | -18 | 1.12 |
| R10 | Oct 29 | 57% | 70% | 74% | -15 | 1.12 |
| R9 | Oct 27 | 53% | 72% | 74% | -20 | 1.12 |
| R8 | Oct 24 | 56% | 75% | 74% | -19 | 1.12 |
| R7 | Oct 21 | 57% | 75% | 74% | -18 | 1.12 |
| R6 | Oct 18 | 58% | 74% | 74% | -16 | 1.6 |
| R5 | Oct 15 | 55% | 76% | 74% | -20 | 1.6 |
| R4 | Oct 12 | 56% | 75% | 72% | -17 | 1.6 |
| R3 | Oct 9 | 54% | 76% | 74% | -20 | 1.6 |
| R2 | Oct 3 | 53% | 69% | 72% | -17 | 1.2 |
| R1 | Sep 30 | 52% | 73% | 72% | -21 | 1.0 |
Every forecast will be graded against the result. More on the Sikt Midterm Bench. Not financial advice.
The markets
Who will win the Alaska Senate race?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola (D) | 97% | 98% | |
| Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) | 2.8% | 2.4% | |
| Gerald Heikes | 1% | – | |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | 1% | <1% |
What to know
- Ranked-choice voting: Alaska uses a top-four primary and ranked-choice voting in the general election.
- Incumbent: sitting senators usually win re-election, so a strong challenger stands out.
- Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Odds usually move most in the final weeks, on polls, early-vote data and news. See all races on the 2026 midterms page.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “Alaska Senate winner? (Person)”: If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “Alaska Senate Election Winner”: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
Who is favored in the Alaska Senate race?
As of Nov 4, 2026, Kalshi prices it at 97% and Polymarket prices it at 98%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.