Alaska Senate race odds 2026: Sullivan vs. Peltola
Republican Dan Sullivan, in the Senate since 2015, faces Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman.
Mary Peltola wins
The markets
Who will win the Alaska Senate race?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 72% | 72% | |
| Dan Sullivan | 28% | 28% | |
| Daniel J. Sullivan | 1% | <1% | |
| Sid Hill | <1% | – |
What to know
- Ranked-choice voting: Alaska uses a top-four primary and ranked-choice voting in the general election.
- Incumbent: sitting senators usually win re-election, so a strong challenger stands out.
- Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Odds usually move most in the final weeks, on polls, early-vote data and news. See all races on the 2026 midterms page.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “Alaska Senate winner? (Person)”: If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “Alaska Senate Election Winner”: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
Who is favored in the Alaska Senate race?
As of Sep 30, 2026, Kalshi prices it at 72% and Polymarket prices it at 72%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.