The House
Sikt: Democrats 91%
Chance Democrats win control (markets at Sikt’s forecast, Nov 3, 2026):
Sikt 91%Polymarket 94%
Sikt Midterm Bench preview, Nov 3, 2026. Graded after the results.
2026 midterm predictions: AI forecast and live odds
Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Live prediction market odds for control of Congress and the Senate races that decide it, from Kalshi and Polymarket, refreshed several times a day.
Election day was November 3, 2026
The 2026 midterms are over. This page keeps Sikt’s forecasts as they were published. The full record, and every page from the benchmark: how Sikt forecast the 2026 midterms.
Who controls Congress?
The Senate
Sikt: Democrats 75%
Chance Democrats win control (markets at Sikt’s forecast, Nov 3, 2026):
Sikt 75%Polymarket 76%
Sikt Midterm Bench preview, Nov 3, 2026. Graded after the results.
Senate races to watch
Closest races first, by the average of Kalshi and Polymarket. Sikt’s latest Midterm Bench forecast is shown first, and in green on each chart. Each card links to live odds, Sikt’s read, history and the market rules.
Alaska Sullivan vs. PeltolaMary Peltola (D) wins · markets on Nov 3, at Sikt’s forecastSikt 53%Kalshi 69%Polymarket 72%Nebraska Ricketts vs. OsbornPete Ricketts (R) wins · markets on Nov 3, at Sikt’s forecastSikt 64%Kalshi 67%Polymarket 72%Michigan Rogers vs. El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed (D) wins · markets on Nov 3, at Sikt’s forecastSikt 77%Kalshi 79%Polymarket 78%Maine Collins vs. JacksonTroy Jackson (D) wins · markets on Nov 3, at Sikt’s forecastSikt 66%Polymarket 74%Texas Paxton vs. TalaricoJames Talarico (D) wins · markets on Nov 3, at Sikt’s forecastSikt 62%Polymarket 72%Ohio Husted vs. BrownSherrod Brown (D) wins · markets on Nov 3, at Sikt’s forecastSikt 60%Polymarket 72%Iowa Hinson vs. TurekAshley Hinson (R) wins · markets on Nov 3, at Sikt’s forecastSikt 51%Polymarket 50%
Sikt Midterm Bench
Sikt is forecasting these races.
Sikt Intelligence is running a live benchmark on the 2026 midterms. Our AI superforecaster puts its own probability on control of Congress and the key Senate races. Forecasts are up for control of the House and Senate and for every key Senate race below, updated each round, next to Kalshi and Polymarket, and every forecast will be scored against the results.
| Race | Outcome | Sikt | Market | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Mary Peltola | 53% | 71% | -18 |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts | 64% | 69% | -5 |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | 77% | 79% | -2 |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | 66% | 74% | -7 |
| Texas | James Talarico | 62% | 72% | -10 |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | 60% | 72% | -12 |
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson | 51% | 50% | +1 |
SiktKalshiPolymarket
Updated 2026-11-03 16:21 UTC. Market is the average of Kalshi and Polymarket at the time of Sikt’s forecast. Every forecast will be scored against the results.
How much will each race be won by?
Sikt’s middle estimate of the winner’s lead, in points, its 80% range (the result should land inside it 8 times in 10) and Kalshi’s margin markets at the start of round 13, Nov 3, 2026. Closest races first. In the chart, Democrats (and in Nebraska, the independent Osborn) are to the right of the middle line. How to read the margins →
Sikt: middle estimate, bar = 80% rangeKalshi market, same marks
| Race | Sikt | Sikt’s 80% range | Market | R ← → D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Peltola +1.0 | Sullivan +5.4 to Peltola +7.0 | Peltola +2.6 | |
| Iowa | Hinson +1.2 | Hinson +7.2 to Turek +4.6 | Turek +0.3 | |
| Kansas | Hamilton +2.0 | Marshall +5.2 to Hamilton +8.2 | Hamilton +1.4 | |
| Ohio | Brown +2.1 | Husted +3.4 to Brown +7.3 | Brown +3.4 | |
| Texas | Talarico +2.4 | Paxton +3.4 to Talarico +8.0 | Talarico +3.0 | |
| South Carolina | Graham +2.8 | Graham +9.2 to Andrews +3.5 | Graham +1.2 | |
| Nebraska | Ricketts +3.1 | Ricketts +9.5 to Osborn +3.1 | Ricketts +3.0 | |
| Maine | Jackson +3.2 | Collins +4.0 to Jackson +10.1 | Jackson +2.4 | |
| Michigan | El-Sayed +5.0 | Rogers +0.6 to El-Sayed +10.6 | El-Sayed +3.6 | |
| Minnesota | Flanagan +7.6 | Flanagan +1.7 to Flanagan +13.4 | Flanagan +7.4 | |
| Georgia | Ossoff +8.3 | Ossoff +2.8 to Ossoff +13.9 | Ossoff +11.4 | |
| New Hampshire | Pappas +8.5 | Pappas +3.0 to Pappas +14.2 | – | |
| North Carolina | Cooper +9.7 | Cooper +4.1 to Cooper +14.9 | Cooper +13.2 |
Seats, Sikt’s middle estimate and 80% range: Senate: Democrats win 52 seats (48 to 55), market 52 or fewer; House: Democrats win 230 seats (219 to 243), market 241; House popular vote D +8.2, market D +9.8.
Just for fun
The long shots.
Politics has a long tail. Some very unlikely events, with illustrative odds: not live markets, and not Sikt Midterm Bench forecasts.
Long shotGeopoliticsWILD-001
The Statue of Liberty is sent back to France before 2035?
Sikt says
1.2%
Range 0.6–2.2%
Market says
2.7%
Sikt sees it 1.5 pts less likely than the market
Long shotGeopoliticsWILD-002
Trump and Kim Jong Un play golf together before 2029?
Sikt’s read: They met three times in 2018–19 and Trump says he’d do it again. Golf is the hard part: it needs a course and security both sides accept. Leaning no.
Sikt says
1.1%
Range 0.6–2%
Market says
3.4%
Sikt sees it 2.3 pts less likely than the market
How to read midterm odds
- The president’s party usually loses ground. It has lost House seats in every midterm since World War II except 1998 and 2002, a strong base rate.
- The Senate is about the map. Only 35 of 100 seats are up, so which states vote matters as much as the national mood.
- Markets and polls answer different questions. Polls measure support today; markets price who will win. See prediction markets vs. polls.
- Long shots are overpriced. A candidate at 5% usually wins less often than that; see the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
When are the 2026 midterm elections?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Voters elect all 435 members of the House and 35 of the 100 senators, including special elections in Ohio and Florida.
Who is favored to win the House?
As of Nov 4, 2026, the prediction markets price a Democratic House at: Polymarket at >99%. These are market prices, not guarantees, and they can move quickly in the final weeks.
Who is favored to win the Senate?
As of Nov 4, 2026, the prediction markets price a Democratic Senate at: Polymarket at >99%. These are market prices, not guarantees, and they can move quickly in the final weeks.
What is the Sikt Midterm Bench?
Sikt Intelligence's live test on the 2026 midterms: our AI superforecaster forecasts the key Senate races ahead of election day, and its forecasts are published next to the market odds and scored against the results.
Are prediction markets accurate on elections?
Often, and they have beaten polls in many studies, but not always: they can be confidently wrong, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.