The House
Democrats 92%
Chance Democrats win, by market:
Kalshi 91%Polymarket 92%
2026 midterms: live odds and forecasts
Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Live prediction market odds for control of Congress and the Senate races that decide it, from Kalshi and Polymarket, refreshed several times a day.
34 days to election day
Who controls Congress?
The Senate
Democrats 62%
Chance Democrats win, by market:
Kalshi 62%Polymarket 62%
Senate races to watch
Closest races first, by the average of Kalshi and Polymarket. Each links to live odds, history and the market rules.
Iowa Toss-upHinson vs. TurekAshley Hinson (R) winsKalshi 60%Polymarket 58%Maine Toss-upCollins vs. JacksonTroy Jackson (D) winsKalshi 60%Polymarket 60%Ohio Toss-upHusted vs. BrownSherrod Brown (D) winsKalshi 60%Polymarket 60%Texas Paxton vs. TalaricoJames Talarico (D) winsKalshi 60%Polymarket 62%Nebraska Ricketts vs. OsbornPete Ricketts (R) winsKalshi 72%Polymarket 70%Alaska Sullivan vs. PeltolaMary Peltola winsKalshi 72%Polymarket 72%Michigan Rogers vs. El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed (D) winsKalshi 74%Polymarket 72%New Hampshire Sununu vs. PappasChris Pappas (D) winsKalshi 86%Polymarket 86%North Carolina Cooper vs. WhatleyRoy Cooper (D) winsKalshi 94%Polymarket 96%Georgia Ossoff vs. CollinsJon Ossoff (D) winsKalshi 95%Polymarket 96%
Sikt Midterm Bench
Sikt is forecasting these races.
Sikt Intelligence is running a live benchmark on the 2026 midterms. Our AI superforecaster puts its own probability on the key Senate races, independently of the markets. As election day nears, we will publish its forecasts here over time, next to Kalshi and Polymarket, and score every one against the results.
SiktKalshiPolymarket
The first results will appear here: Sikt’s forecast for each race as a line over time, next to the market.
Get notified: join the waitlistJust for fun
The long shots.
Politics has a long tail. Some very unlikely events, with illustrative odds: not live markets, and not Sikt Midterm Bench forecasts.
Long shotGeopoliticsWILD-001
The Statue of Liberty is sent back to France before 2035?
Sikt says
1.2%
Range 0.6–2.2%
Market says
2.7%
Sikt sees it 1.5 pts less likely than the market
Long shotGeopoliticsWILD-002
Trump and Kim Jong Un play golf together before 2029?
Sikt’s read: They met three times in 2018–19 and Trump says he’d do it again. Golf is the hard part: it needs a course and security both sides accept. Leaning no.
Sikt says
1.1%
Range 0.6–2%
Market says
3.4%
Sikt sees it 2.3 pts less likely than the market
How to read midterm odds
- The president’s party usually loses ground. It has lost House seats in every midterm since World War II except 1998 and 2002, a strong base rate.
- The Senate is about the map. Only 35 of 100 seats are up, so which states vote matters as much as the national mood.
- Markets and polls answer different questions. Polls measure support today; markets price who will win. See prediction markets vs. polls.
- Long shots are overpriced. A candidate at 5% usually wins less often than that; see the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
When are the 2026 midterm elections?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Voters elect all 435 members of the House and 35 of the 100 senators, including special elections in Ohio and Florida.
Who is favored to win the House?
As of Sep 30, 2026, the prediction markets price a Democratic House at: Kalshi at 91% and Polymarket at 92%. These are market prices, not guarantees, and they can move quickly in the final weeks.
Who is favored to win the Senate?
As of Sep 30, 2026, the prediction markets price a Democratic Senate at: Kalshi at 62% and Polymarket at 62%. These are market prices, not guarantees, and they can move quickly in the final weeks.
What is the Sikt Midterm Bench?
Sikt Intelligence's live test on the 2026 midterms: our AI superforecaster forecasts the key Senate races ahead of election day, and its forecasts are published next to the market odds and scored against the results.
Are prediction markets accurate on elections?
Often, and they have beaten polls in many studies, but not always: they can be confidently wrong, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.