Ohio Senate race odds 2026: Husted vs. Brown
A special election for the seat JD Vance left to become vice president: Republican Jon Husted, appointed to the seat in January 2025, faces former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown.
Sherrod Brown (D) wins
Polymarket
72%
At Sikt’s forecast, Nov 3 · now >99%
Sikt’s forecast
Sikt gives Sherrod Brown a 60% chance, against 72% on the markets at the time. Latest Sikt Midterm Bench round: Nov 3, 2026.
Sikt’s read
- History favors Republicans. Ohio voted for Trump by about 11 points in 2024, and Brown lost his old seat that year by 3.6 points after polls showed a near tie.
- The polls favor Brown. All five polling averages put him 1.7 to 3.0 points ahead. Nonpartisan polls range from Brown +1 to +7, and Republican-leaning pollsters mostly show him ahead or tied (Trafalgar +2, InsiderAdvantage +2, Rasmussen tied).
- The year helps him. The national generic ballot is about D+9, Brown ran 7.6 points ahead of his party's presidential ticket in 2024, and Husted is an appointed senator facing his first Senate race.
- What holds Sikt back: Ohio polls have understated Republicans in nearly every cycle since 2016, by roughly 2 to 6 points. Taking part of that off leaves Brown only about a point ahead.
- Bottom line: Brown is a modest favorite, slightly lower than last round, and after discounting the polls Sikt is clearly less sure of him than the market is.
How much will they win by?
Sikt’s middle estimate: Brown by 2.1 points. Its 80% range runs from Husted by 3.4 to Brown by 7.3, so the result should land inside it 8 times in 10. Kalshi's margin markets, at the start of the round: Brown by 3.4 (Husted by 2.8 to Brown by 8.1).
Margin is the winner’s lead in share of the vote, in percentage points. Round 13, Nov 3, 2026. Scored against the certified result. Every race: 2026 Senate race margins.
Every round
Chance Sherrod Brown wins. Market prices are from the same day; the gap is Sikt minus the average of the two markets, in points. Version is the release of Sikt that made the forecast.
| Round | Date | Sikt | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R13 | Nov 3 | 60% | – | 72% | -12 | 1.12 |
| R12 | Nov 2 | 62% | – | 74% | -12 | 1.12 |
| R11 | Oct 31 | 62% | – | 70% | -8 | 1.12 |
| R10 | Oct 29 | 59% | – | 70% | -10 | 1.12 |
| R9 | Oct 27 | 65% | – | 68% | -4 | 1.12 |
| R8 | Oct 24 | 64% | – | 70% | -5 | 1.12 |
| R7 | Oct 21 | 58% | – | 64% | -6 | 1.12 |
| R6 | Oct 18 | 63% | – | 66% | -3 | 1.6 |
| R5 | Oct 15 | 62% | – | 62% | +1 | 1.6 |
| R4 | Oct 12 | 61% | – | 62% | -1 | 1.6 |
| R3 | Oct 9 | 60% | – | 62% | -2 | 1.6 |
| R2 | Oct 3 | 66% | – | 60% | +7 | 1.2 |
| R1 | Sep 30 | 61% | – | 62% | -1 | 1.0 |
Every forecast will be graded against the result. More on the Sikt Midterm Bench. Not financial advice.
The markets
Who will win the Ohio Senate race?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sherrod Brown (D) | – | >99% | |
| Jon Husted (R) | – | <1% |
What to know
- Rematch of sorts: Brown held Ohio's other Senate seat for 18 years before losing it in 2024.
- Special election: the winner serves the rest of the term, which runs to January 2029.
- Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Odds usually move most in the final weeks, on polls, early-vote data and news. See all races on the 2026 midterms page.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “Ohio Senate winner?”: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Ohio pursuant to the Class III (special election) held on November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “Ohio Senate Election Winner”: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
Who is favored in the Ohio Senate race?
As of Nov 4, 2026, Polymarket prices it at >99%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.