Texas Senate race odds 2026: Paxton vs. Talarico
Republican Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, faces Democrat James Talarico, a state representative.
James Talarico (D) wins
Polymarket
72%
At Sikt’s forecast, Nov 3 · now >99%
Sikt’s forecast
Sikt gives James Talarico a 62% chance, against 72% on the markets at the time. Latest Sikt Midterm Bench round: Nov 3, 2026.
Sikt’s read
- History favors Republicans. No Democrat has won a Texas Senate race since 1988, and Trump carried the state by about 14 points in 2024.
- The polls favor Talarico. Every final polling average puts him 2.5 to 3.8 points ahead, and the strongest nonpartisan polls are his best (NYT/Siena +7, AtlasIntel +6, SSRS +6, YouGov +4). Only Republican-leaning pollsters show a tie or Paxton up 1.
- The year helps him. Democrats lead the national generic ballot by about 9 points, Paxton carries heavy baggage, John Cornyn has not endorsed him, and Republican leaders have voiced alarm in public.
- What holds Sikt back: Texas polls understated Republicans by three to five points in 2020 and 2024, and the vote still to be cast on Election Day leans Republican. (In the 2018 midterm, though, the polls overstated Cruz.)
- Bottom line: Talarico is a modest favorite, a touch lower than last round. Sikt discounts his poll lead for Texas's record, so it is clearly less sure of him than the market is.
How much will they win by?
Sikt’s middle estimate: Talarico by 2.4 points. Its 80% range runs from Paxton by 3.4 to Talarico by 8.0, so the result should land inside it 8 times in 10. Kalshi's margin markets, at the start of the round: Talarico by 3.0 (Paxton by 2.1 to Talarico by 8.4).
Margin is the winner’s lead in share of the vote, in percentage points. Round 13, Nov 3, 2026. Scored against the certified result. Every race: 2026 Senate race margins.
Every round
Chance James Talarico wins. Market prices are from the same day; the gap is Sikt minus the average of the two markets, in points. Version is the release of Sikt that made the forecast.
| Round | Date | Sikt | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R13 | Nov 3 | 62% | – | 72% | -10 | 1.12 |
| R12 | Nov 2 | 65% | – | 70% | -6 | 1.12 |
| R11 | Oct 31 | 64% | – | 72% | -7 | 1.12 |
| R10 | Oct 29 | 60% | – | 68% | -8 | 1.12 |
| R9 | Oct 27 | 60% | – | 64% | -4 | 1.12 |
| R8 | Oct 24 | 60% | – | 64% | -4 | 1.12 |
| R7 | Oct 21 | 57% | – | 64% | -6 | 1.12 |
| R6 | Oct 18 | 58% | – | 62% | -4 | 1.6 |
| R5 | Oct 15 | 60% | – | 62% | -2 | 1.6 |
| R4 | Oct 12 | 63% | – | 62% | +1 | 1.6 |
| R3 | Oct 9 | 61% | – | 64% | -2 | 1.6 |
| R2 | Oct 3 | 60% | – | 60% | -1 | 1.2 |
| R1 | Sep 30 | 57% | – | 62% | -5 | 1.0 |
Every forecast will be graded against the result. More on the Sikt Midterm Bench. Not financial advice.
The markets
Who will win the Texas Senate race?
Kalshi · 187.3M contracts traded · Polymarket · $21.8M traded
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | – | >99% | |
| Ken Paxton (R) | – | <1% |
What to know
- Base rate: Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, a long history the markets are pricing against.
- Heavily traded: one of the largest Senate markets of the cycle on both platforms.
- Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Odds usually move most in the final weeks, on polls, early-vote data and news. See all races on the 2026 midterms page.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “Texas Senate winner?”: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “Texas Senate Election Winner”: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
Who is favored in the Texas Senate race?
As of Nov 4, 2026, Polymarket prices it at >99%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.