Iowa Senate race odds 2026: Hinson vs. Turek
An open seat after Joni Ernst chose not to run again: Republican congresswoman Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state representative Josh Turek.
Ashley Hinson (R) wins
Polymarket
50%
At Sikt’s forecast, Nov 3 · now <1%
Sikt’s forecast
Sikt gives Ashley Hinson a 51% chance, against 50% on the markets at the time. Latest Sikt Midterm Bench round: Nov 3, 2026.
Sikt’s read
- History favors Republicans. Democrats have not won an Iowa Senate race since 2008, Trump carried the state by about 13 points in 2024, and Republicans hold a large registration edge.
- The polls are tied. The final polling averages run from Hinson +0.7 to Turek +0.7. Nonpartisan polls lean slightly Turek (AtlasIntel +5, Suffolk +4, Marist +3, NYT/Siena +1, YouGov +1), while most polls with Hinson ahead are Republican-sponsored.
- The year helps Turek. The national generic ballot is about D+9, Iowans disapprove of Trump 53–44, and Democrats cast 46% of early ballots, their best midterm share in 20 years (though Republican early votes grew fastest).
- What holds Sikt back on Turek: Iowa runs about 11 points to the right of the nation, and its final polls understated Republicans in 2020 and 2024.
- Bottom line: a coin flip with the slightest Hinson lean, a little closer than last round. The market now leans slightly to Turek, so Sikt and the market pick different favorites, by only a few points.
How much will they win by?
Sikt’s middle estimate: Hinson by 1.2 points. Its 80% range runs from Hinson by 7.2 to Turek by 4.6, so the result should land inside it 8 times in 10. Kalshi's margin markets, at the start of the round: Turek by 0.3 (Hinson by 5.0 to Turek by 5.3).
Margin is the winner’s lead in share of the vote, in percentage points. Round 13, Nov 3, 2026. Scored against the certified result. Every race: 2026 Senate race margins.
Every round
Chance Ashley Hinson wins. Market prices are from the same day; the gap is Sikt minus the average of the two markets, in points. Version is the release of Sikt that made the forecast.
| Round | Date | Sikt | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R13 | Nov 3 | 51% | – | 50% | +1 | 1.12 |
| R12 | Nov 2 | 53% | – | 58% | -5 | 1.12 |
| R11 | Oct 31 | 54% | – | 56% | -2 | 1.12 |
| R10 | Oct 29 | 55% | – | 58% | -4 | 1.12 |
| R9 | Oct 27 | 51% | – | 57% | -6 | 1.12 |
| R8 | Oct 24 | 54% | – | 57% | -4 | 1.12 |
| R7 | Oct 21 | 55% | – | 58% | -3 | 1.12 |
| R6 | Oct 18 | 52% | – | 58% | -6 | 1.6 |
| R5 | Oct 15 | 54% | – | 57% | -4 | 1.6 |
| R4 | Oct 12 | 54% | – | 58% | -4 | 1.6 |
| R3 | Oct 9 | 51% | – | 56% | -5 | 1.6 |
| R2 | Oct 3 | 55% | – | 56% | -2 | 1.2 |
| R1 | Sep 30 | 55% | – | 58% | -4 | 1.0 |
Every forecast will be graded against the result. More on the Sikt Midterm Bench. Not financial advice.
The markets
Who will win the Iowa Senate race?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Turek (D) | – | >99% | |
| Ashley Hinson (R) | – | <1% |
What to know
- Open seat: races without an incumbent tend to be more competitive than re-election races.
- Lean: Iowa has voted Republican in recent statewide races.
- Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Odds usually move most in the final weeks, on polls, early-vote data and news. See all races on the 2026 midterms page.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “Iowa Senate winner?”: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “Iowa Senate Election Winner”: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
Who is favored in the Iowa Senate race?
As of Nov 4, 2026, Polymarket prices it at <1%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.