Georgia Senate race odds 2026: Ossoff vs. Collins
Democrat Jon Ossoff, in the Senate since 2021, faces Republican congressman Mike Collins.
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Sikt’s forecast
Sikt gives Jon Ossoff a 94% chance. Latest Sikt Midterm Bench round: Nov 3, 2026.
Sikt’s read
- A swing state. Trump won Georgia by about 2 points in 2024, but Democrats have won every Georgia Senate race since 2020.
- The polls favor Ossoff. All five polling averages put him 7.8 to 8.9 points ahead at about 52%, and every poll in the last 30 days, Republican-sponsored ones included, has him up 7 to 15. The two newest, from November 2, have him up 10 and 7.
- The money is one-sided. Ossoff has far more money than Collins, and the main Republican Senate super PAC cancelled its Georgia ad bookings.
- What holds Sikt back: Georgia polls overstated Democrats in 2020, and final Senate polls miss by about 4.6 points on average. Collins would need a miss of 8 to 9 points.
- The runoff rule. Georgia requires a majority, but with no Libertarian on the ballot and Ossoff polling above 50%, a December 1 runoff is unlikely.
- Bottom line: Ossoff is a strong favorite, the same as in Sikt's last Georgia forecast. Sikt and the market agree.
How much will they win by?
Sikt’s middle estimate: Ossoff by 8.3 points. Its 80% range runs from Ossoff by 2.8 to Ossoff by 13.9, so the result should land inside it 8 times in 10. Kalshi's margin markets, at the start of the round: Ossoff by 11.4 (Ossoff by 4.9 to Ossoff by 18.3).
Margin is the winner’s lead in share of the vote, in percentage points. Round 13, Nov 3, 2026. Scored against the certified result. Every race: 2026 Senate race margins.
Every round
Chance Jon Ossoff wins. Market prices are from the same day; the gap is Sikt minus the average of the two markets, in points. Version is the release of Sikt that made the forecast.
| Round | Date | Sikt | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R13 | Nov 3 | 94% | – | – | – | 1.12 |
| R10 | Oct 29 | 94% | – | – | – | 1.12 |
| R6 | Oct 18 | 93% | – | – | – | 1.6 |
| R5 | Oct 15 | 94% | – | – | – | 1.6 |
| R4 | Oct 12 | 94% | – | – | – | 1.6 |
| R3 | Oct 9 | 93% | – | – | – | 1.6 |
| R2 | Oct 3 | 92% | – | – | – | 1.2 |
| R1 | Sep 30 | 90% | – | – | – | 1.0 |
Every forecast will be graded against the result. More on the Sikt Midterm Bench. Not financial advice.
The markets
Who will win the Georgia Senate race?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Average |
|---|
What to know
- Runoff rule: in Georgia, a candidate needs a majority to win outright, or the race goes to a runoff.
- Long shots: when one side trades near 5%, remember that long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
- Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Odds usually move most in the final weeks, on polls, early-vote data and news. See all races on the 2026 midterms page.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “Georgia Senate winner?”: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Georgia for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “Georgia Senate Election Winner”: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Georgia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
Who is favored in the Georgia Senate race?
These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.