Michigan Senate race odds 2026: Rogers vs. El-Sayed
An open seat after Gary Peters chose not to run again: Republican Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost Michigan's 2024 Senate race, faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a former Detroit health director.
Abdul El-Sayed (D) wins
Kalshi
79%
At Sikt’s forecast, Nov 3 · now >99%
Polymarket
78%
At Sikt’s forecast, Nov 3 · now >99%
Sikt’s forecast
Sikt gives Abdul El-Sayed a 77% chance, against 79% on the markets at the time. Latest Sikt Midterm Bench round: Nov 3, 2026.
Sikt’s read
- History favors Democrats. Republicans have not won a Michigan Senate race since 1994.
- The polls favor El-Sayed. All five polling averages put him 4.7 to 6.3 points ahead. Polls finished after Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers on November 1 still have him up (NYT/Siena +11, AtlasIntel +8, Emerson +6, Zogby +2), as do Republican-sponsored polls (Rasmussen +5, InsiderAdvantage +1).
- The year helps him. Democrats lead the national generic ballot by about 9 points, a strong midterm year for the party out of power.
- What holds Sikt back: Michigan polls overstated Democrats by about 3.7 points in 2020 and again in 2024, and polls overstated El-Sayed's margin in the primary. He also runs behind the Democratic candidate for governor, and outside money and the late Stevens endorsement favor Rogers.
- Bottom line: El-Sayed is still a clear favorite, but this is Sikt's biggest move of the round, down from last time. Sikt is now a little less sure of him than the market is.
How much will they win by?
Sikt’s middle estimate: El-Sayed by 5.0 points. Its 80% range runs from Rogers by 0.6 to El-Sayed by 10.6, so the result should land inside it 8 times in 10. Kalshi's margin markets, at the start of the round: El-Sayed by 3.6 (Rogers by 1.9 to El-Sayed by 10.6).
Margin is the winner’s lead in share of the vote, in percentage points. Round 13, Nov 3, 2026. Scored against the certified result. Every race: 2026 Senate race margins.
Every round
Chance Abdul El-Sayed wins. Market prices are from the same day; the gap is Sikt minus the average of the two markets, in points. Version is the release of Sikt that made the forecast.
| Round | Date | Sikt | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R13 | Nov 3 | 77% | 79% | 78% | -2 | 1.12 |
| R12 | Nov 2 | 82% | 78% | 74% | +5 | 1.12 |
| R11 | Oct 31 | 81% | 73% | 78% | +6 | 1.12 |
| R10 | Oct 29 | 77% | 70% | 70% | +7 | 1.12 |
| R9 | Oct 27 | 76% | 68% | 68% | +8 | 1.12 |
| R8 | Oct 24 | 70% | 68% | 72% | +1 | 1.12 |
| R7 | Oct 21 | 71% | 69% | 70% | +1 | 1.12 |
| R6 | Oct 18 | 75% | 68% | 68% | +7 | 1.6 |
| R5 | Oct 15 | 76% | 68% | 70% | +7 | 1.6 |
| R4 | Oct 12 | 78% | 67% | 70% | +10 | 1.6 |
| R3 | Oct 9 | 75% | 69% | 72% | +5 | 1.6 |
| R2 | Oct 3 | 78% | 73% | 72% | +5 | 1.2 |
| R1 | Sep 30 | 71% | 74% | 72% | -2 | 1.0 |
Every forecast will be graded against the result. More on the Sikt Midterm Bench. Not financial advice.
The markets
Who will win the Michigan Senate race?
Kalshi · 79.2M contracts traded · Polymarket · $13.1M traded
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed (D) | >99% | >99% | |
| Mike Rogers (R) | <1% | <1% |
What to know
- Swing state: Michigan's recent statewide races have often been decided by a few points.
- Open seat: no incumbency advantage for either side.
- Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Odds usually move most in the final weeks, on polls, early-vote data and news. See all races on the 2026 midterms page.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “Michigan Senate winner?”: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Michigan for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “Michigan Senate Election Winner”: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
Who is favored in the Michigan Senate race?
As of Nov 4, 2026, Kalshi prices it at >99% and Polymarket prices it at >99%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.