Nebraska Senate race odds 2026: Ricketts vs. Osborn
Republican Pete Ricketts, appointed in 2023 and elected in 2024 to finish the term, faces independent Dan Osborn, who ran a surprisingly close race for Nebraska's other Senate seat in 2024.
Pete Ricketts (R) wins
Kalshi
67%
At Sikt’s forecast, Nov 3 · now 99%
Polymarket
72%
At Sikt’s forecast, Nov 3 · now 99%
Sikt’s forecast
Sikt gives Pete Ricketts a 64% chance, against 69% on the markets at the time. Latest Sikt Midterm Bench round: Nov 3, 2026.
Sikt’s read
- History favors Ricketts. No Democrat has won a Nebraska Senate race since 2006, no independent since 1936, and Trump won the state by about 20 points in 2024.
- The polls lean Ricketts. Averages updated November 1–2 put him 0.8 to 2.8 points ahead, and 7 of the 10 recent polls have him in front, including NYT/Siena by 6. YouGov has a tie, and two of the three polls with Osborn ahead or tied are Democratic-sponsored. Osborn is an independent backed by Democrats; no Democrat is on the ballot.
- The year helps Osborn. The national generic ballot is about D+9, Trump's approval among Nebraska likely voters is underwater (47–49 in NYT/Siena), Osborn ran about 14 points ahead of his party's presidential ticket in 2024, and the early vote in Omaha's Douglas County leans Democratic.
- What holds Sikt back on Osborn: in 2024 the polls understated Deb Fischer, who won by 6.7, and undecided voters in a state this Republican likely lean Ricketts.
- Bottom line: Ricketts is a moderate favorite, unchanged from last round, and Sikt still gives Osborn a slightly better chance than the market does.
How much will they win by?
Sikt’s middle estimate: Ricketts by 3.1 points. Its 80% range runs from Ricketts by 9.5 to Osborn by 3.1, so the result should land inside it 8 times in 10. Kalshi's margin markets, at the start of the round: Ricketts by 3.0 (Ricketts by 11.5 to Osborn by 5.7).
Margin is the winner’s lead in share of the vote, in percentage points. Round 13, Nov 3, 2026. Scored against the certified result. Every race: 2026 Senate race margins.
Every round
Chance Pete Ricketts wins. Market prices are from the same day; the gap is Sikt minus the average of the two markets, in points. Version is the release of Sikt that made the forecast.
| Round | Date | Sikt | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R13 | Nov 3 | 64% | 67% | 72% | -5 | 1.12 |
| R12 | Nov 2 | 64% | 70% | 72% | -7 | 1.12 |
| R11 | Oct 31 | 66% | 68% | 68% | -3 | 1.12 |
| R10 | Oct 29 | 61% | 71% | 72% | -11 | 1.12 |
| R9 | Oct 27 | 56% | 74% | 72% | -17 | 1.12 |
| R8 | Oct 24 | 59% | 77% | 74% | -16 | 1.12 |
| R7 | Oct 21 | 60% | 72% | 72% | -12 | 1.12 |
| R6 | Oct 18 | 61% | 73% | 72% | -12 | 1.6 |
| R5 | Oct 15 | 61% | 75% | 72% | -13 | 1.6 |
| R4 | Oct 12 | 60% | 74% | 72% | -12 | 1.6 |
| R3 | Oct 9 | 62% | 73% | 72% | -10 | 1.6 |
| R2 | Oct 3 | 60% | 73% | 74% | -14 | 1.2 |
| R1 | Sep 30 | 61% | 73% | 70% | -10 | 1.0 |
Every forecast will be graded against the result. More on the Sikt Midterm Bench. Not financial advice.
The markets
Who will win the Nebraska Senate race?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Ricketts (R) | 99% | 99% | |
| Dan Osborn | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| Cindy Burbank | <1% | – | |
| Democrat | – | <1% |
What to know
- Independent challenger: Osborn runs without a party label, so Polymarket lists him as 'Independent'; we match him to Kalshi's market by name.
- Lean: Nebraska usually votes Republican statewide.
- Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Odds usually move most in the final weeks, on polls, early-vote data and news. See all races on the 2026 midterms page.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “Nebraska Senate winner?”: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Nebraska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “Nebraska Senate Election Winner ”: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
Who is favored in the Nebraska Senate race?
As of Nov 4, 2026, Kalshi prices it at 99% and Polymarket prices it at 99%. These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.