North Carolina Senate race odds 2026: Cooper vs. Whatley
An open seat after Thom Tillis chose not to run again: Democrat Roy Cooper, a former two-term governor, faces Republican Michael Whatley, a former chair of the Republican National Committee.
wins
Sikt’s forecast
Sikt gives Roy Cooper a 96% chance. Latest Sikt Midterm Bench round: Nov 3, 2026.
Sikt’s read
- History favors Republicans. Democrats have won one of the last six North Carolina Senate races, though Cooper has won all six of his statewide races.
- The polls strongly favor Cooper. All five polling averages put him 10.0 to 11.6 points ahead, and every poll in the last 30 days, Republican-sponsored ones included, has him up 7 to 14.
- The money and the vote agree. Cooper has far more cash, the main Republican Senate super PAC cancelled its North Carolina money, and Whatley went dark on TV. Registered Democrats cast 38% of early ballots against 26% for Republicans, and Trump himself called Cooper the favorite.
- What holds Sikt back: North Carolina polls understated Republicans in 2014, 2016 and 2020, by up to 4.4 points, and Republicans vote more on Election Day. Whatley would still need a miss more than twice that size.
- Bottom line: Cooper is a strong favorite, a touch firmer than last round. Sikt and the market agree.
How much will they win by?
Sikt’s middle estimate: Cooper by 9.7 points. Its 80% range runs from Cooper by 4.1 to Cooper by 14.9, so the result should land inside it 8 times in 10. Kalshi's margin markets, at the start of the round: Cooper by 13.2 (Cooper by 6.5 to Cooper by 20.4).
Margin is the winner’s lead in share of the vote, in percentage points. Round 13, Nov 3, 2026. Scored against the certified result. Every race: 2026 Senate race margins.
Every round
Chance Roy Cooper wins. Market prices are from the same day; the gap is Sikt minus the average of the two markets, in points. Version is the release of Sikt that made the forecast.
| Round | Date | Sikt | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R13 | Nov 3 | 96% | – | – | – | 1.12 |
| R12 | Nov 2 | 95% | – | – | – | 1.12 |
| R11 | Oct 31 | 95% | – | – | – | 1.12 |
| R10 | Oct 29 | 93% | – | – | – | 1.12 |
| R9 | Oct 27 | 95% | – | – | – | 1.12 |
| R8 | Oct 24 | 95% | – | – | – | 1.12 |
| R7 | Oct 21 | 95% | – | – | – | 1.12 |
| R6 | Oct 18 | 95% | – | – | – | 1.6 |
| R5 | Oct 15 | 95% | – | – | – | 1.6 |
| R4 | Oct 12 | 95% | – | – | – | 1.6 |
| R3 | Oct 9 | 95% | – | – | – | 1.6 |
| R2 | Oct 3 | 94% | – | – | – | 1.2 |
| R1 | Sep 30 | 90% | – | – | – | 1.0 |
Every forecast will be graded against the result. More on the Sikt Midterm Bench. Not financial advice.
The markets
Who will win the North Carolina Senate race?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Average |
|---|
What to know
- Open seat: a rare Senate race where a well-known former governor is running.
- Long shots: when one side trades near 5%, remember that long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
- Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Odds usually move most in the final weeks, on polls, early-vote data and news. See all races on the 2026 midterms page.
How these markets resolve
- Kalshi, “North Carolina Senate winner?”: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Full rules
- Polymarket, “North Carolina Senate Election Winner”: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Full rules
How to read these odds
A price of 30¢ on a contract that pays $1 means the market puts the event at roughly 30%. Prices move with supply and demand, include fees and spreads, and can lean on long shots. When the two markets disagree by more than a few points, check whether their rules or deadlines differ. More in how prediction markets work and the favorite-longshot bias.
FAQ
Who is favored in the North Carolina Senate race?
These are market prices, roughly the probability traders are willing to bet on, not a guarantee.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, fees and sometimes different rules or deadlines. A gap of a few points is normal; a large gap is worth checking against each market's rules.
How often are these odds updated?
Sikt refreshes this page from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public data several times a day. The time of the last update is shown at the top.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
Often, but not uniformly. Research on Kalshi finds prices are informative and improve as a market nears its close, but long shots tend to be overpriced (the favorite-longshot bias).
Market data from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, shown for information only. Prices are midpoints or last trades and can be several hours old. Sikt Intelligence is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not financial or investment advice.